Ceasefires, Capex and crude in focus

Global markets navigated a volatile week as geopolitical tensions and corporate earnings competed for investor attention.

Weekly market updates are provided by Zurich Ireland.

US equities opened cautiously, pausing after a strong three-week rally, but sentiment improved midweek following a temporary extension of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, prompting a rebound in risk assets. However, progress toward a more durable agreement remained limited. 

The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz kept energy markets under pressure, with oil prices rising above $95 per barrel and reinforcing inflation concerns.

In Europe, equities ended the week lower, reflecting the broader ‘risk-off’ tone. Investors rotated toward defensive sectors, with utilities and telecommunications outperforming. Elevated oil prices and unresolved tensions between the US and Iran continued to weigh on sentiment, particularly across more cyclical segments of the market. 

Earnings season provided a key focal point, with nearly 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting results. The technology sector stood out, delivering a mix of upside surprises and renewed scrutiny. Intel shares surged more than 20% after reporting earnings well ahead of expectations, driven by strong demand for its advanced packaging technology, an increasingly important component in the AI chip ecosystem. 

Tesla saw a more mixed reaction. Shares initially moved higher following its earnings release, but reversed course after the company announced a significant increase in capital expenditure. Tesla raised its 2026 spending guidance to over $25 billion, underscoring its continued investment in AI and infrastructure. 

Concerns have emerged that elevated spending could weigh on free cash flow through the remainder of the year. On the macroeconomic front, US consumer data pointed to continued resilience despite rising energy costs. 

Retail sales increased by 1.7% month-on-month in March, supported in part by higher gasoline spending. Core retail sales rose by 0.6%, suggesting underlying demand remains firm. 

In fixed income markets, US Treasury yields moved higher ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.3%. Markets continue to anticipate a pause in policy adjustments as the Fed balances persistent inflation pressures with signs of economic stability.

Equities

Global stocks finished up 0.6% in euro terms and down -0.3% in local terms last week. Year-to-date global markets are up by 5.4% in euro terms and up by 5.0% in local terms. The US market, the largest in the world, finished up at 1.5% in euro terms and up at 0.6% in local terms.

Fixed Income & FX

The US 10-year yield finished at 4.3% last week. The German equivalent finished at 3.0%. The Irish 10-year bond yield finished at 3.2%. The Euro/US Dollar exchange rate finished at 1.17, whilst Euro/GBP finished at 0.87.

Commodities

Oil finished the week at $94 per barrel and is up 64.7% year-to date in euro terms. Gold finished the week at $4,710 per troy ounce and is up 9.3% year-to-date in euro terms. Copper finished the week at $13,247 per tonne and is up 6.6% year-to-date in euro terms.

The week ahead

Tuesday 28th April

Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision & Japanese CPI data is released.

Wednesday 29th April

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision is announced.

Thursday 30th April 

Eurozone unemployment, CPI, and GDP data is published & ECB announces interest rate decision.