GDP expected to grow at 4.6% in 2016 according to ESRI

Economy | Tue 21 Jun | Author – Business & Finance
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Economic growth is expected to remain strong in 2016, with Ireland’s gross domestic product (GDP) forecast to grow by approximately 4.6% in 2016 and 4.2% in 2017, according to the latest analysis by researchers at the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

In the Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2016, a decline in unemployment is also expected, with the headline rate envisaged to fall to 7.6% by the end of 2016 and to 6.5% by the end of 2017. The analysis also notes that GNP is set to grow by 4.8% in 2016 and by 4.3% in 2017.

The report also highlighted the evolution of residential investment rates across select European countries for the period 2003 to 2014 and examines the likely supply response of the Irish housing market in a European context.

Author of the report Kieran McQuinn said: “We still expect the Irish economy to register very significant growth in 2016 and 2017, particularly when compared with other European economies. However there are some indications that the slowdown in global trade, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Brexit referendum in the UK, is having an adverse impact on the traded sector of the Irish economy. These are the main downside risks to the Irish economy at present.”

Co-editor David Duffy added: “It is now clear that domestic sources of growth, investment and consumption are the main determinants of the increase expected in Irish economic activity. While the upward trend in commercial construction is likely to continue in 2016 and 2017, there is as of yet no real indication that housing supply is growing much faster than the 2015 figure.”