By Business & Finance 
US equities had a poor start to the week after US President Trump refused to rule out the possibility of a recession in an interview on Sunday, according to Zurich Ireland.
The Nasdaq 100 registered its worst day since 2022 on Monday, and US equities officially entered correction territory during the week, down more than 10% from record highs set in February.
In tariff talk, the EU announced plans to place a 50% levy on American-made whiskey in response to Trump’s tax on steel and aluminium imports. Trump countered by threatening a 200% tariff on all alcoholic products imported from the EU.
There were two key inflation indicators for the US to report last week. A CPI release on Wednesday showed that growth had eased to 2.8% in February, better than the 2.9% expected. On Thursday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in flat for February, again beating projections for an increase in wholesale prices. Despite the strong releases, the 10-year Treasury yield ended the week flat, buoyed by uncertainty induced by the latest developments in the tit-for-tat trade war.
The word “ceasefire” began to dominate headlines in Europe last week as both Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Russian President Putin expressed their desire to end the fighting.
Expectations that German fiscal policy reforms will receive parliamentary approval added to the optimistic sentiment, causing the euro to strengthen, with EUR/USD holding close to the 1.09 level.
The main economic release of note was the Eurozone industrial production for January, which indicated output grew by 0.8% monthly, outpacing expectations of 0.6%.
In the UK, a GDP report showed that the economy contracted by 0.1% in January when a 0.1% expansion had been anticipated. This marked another blow to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’s push for growth. She pinned the fall in productivity on global economic uncertainty while adding that she expects a boost in defence spending to kickstart growth.
Elsewhere, gold continued to shine through the fog of geopolitical scepticism, reaching a new milestone high of $3,000/oz.
Equities
Global stocks finished at 0.5% in euro terms and 1.3% in local terms last week. Year-to-date global markets are down by -5.2% in euro terms and remain flat at 0.0% in local terms. The US market, the largest in the world, finished at 0.5% in euro terms and 1.2% local terms.
Fixed Income & FX
The US 10-year yield finished at 4.3% last week. The German equivalent finished at 2.8%. The Irish 10-year bond yield finished at 3.1%. The Euro/US Dollar exchange rate finished at 1.09, whilst Euro/GBP finished at 0.84.
Commodities
Oil finished the week at $68 per barrel and is down -10.7% year-to date in euro terms. Gold finished the week at $3,001 per troy ounce and is up 8.4% year-to-date in euro terms. Copper finished the week at $9,799 per tonne.
The week ahead
Wednesday 19th March
The Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision.
The Federal Reserve announces the FOMC’s interest rate decision.
Thursday 20th March
US GDP growth rate goes to print.
About: Zurich Investments
The team at Zurich Investments is a long established and highly experienced team of investment managers who manage approximately €41.9bn in investments of which pension assets amount to €36.1bn. Find out more about Zurich Life’s funds and investments here.
The team at Zurich Investments is a long established and highly experienced team of investment managers who manage approximately €41.9bn in investment of which pension assets amount to €36.1bn. To find out more about Zurich Life’s funds and investments, w: zurichlife.ie/funds, Twitter: @ZurichLife, LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/zurich-life-assurance-plc
